Professor Ghosn is a faculty member in the Department of Government at the University of Essex and affiliated faculty (non-UA) at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Arizona. She has received several research awards, including a Minerva Initiative funded by the Department of Defense and the U.S. Army Research Office, as well as several teaching awards, both undergraduate and graduate.
Her current research focuses on enemy images as obstacles to cooperation, ethics in fieldwork, forced migration, militarized interstate disputes, and transitional justice.
What do you think about the latest developments in Ukraine?
Two and a half years into the war, Russia still controls 18% of Ukrainian territory. Ukraine has received $278 billion in aid, including $75 billion from the United States, though concerns about donor fatigue are rising. Ukrainian forces are increasingly strained, especially with reports of 11,000 North Korean troops entering the conflict zone. Additionally, the election of former President Trump in the U.S. could further challenge Ukraine’s position, despite continued expressions of support from the UK and other European leaders.
If Russia gains more ground in Ukraine, what could be the potential for further displacement, and what could be the challenges for Europe to accommodate the increasing number of people in such a scenario?
According to a survey conducted earlier this year, support for Ukrainian refugees in the EU remains high, averaging 71%. Support is strongest in Spain (85%) and lowest in Poland (60%). However, solidarity is decreasing in some neighboring countries, with a significant percentage viewing Ukrainian migrants as a threat: 40% in Poland, 37% in Hungary, and 35% in Romania. In Estonia, support for accepting refugees remains steady at 60-63%. In Latvia, while overall support is widespread, only 20% favor keeping Ukrainian refugees long-term to address demographic and labor issues.
Should Ukraine seek some negotiations (e.g., on a ceasefire) with Russia in light of possible more limited Western aid in 2025?
Despite strong support for Ukraine, European public sentiment remains pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances for victory. A survey across 12 European countries found that 41% of respondents favored Europe encouraging Ukraine to negotiate peace with Russia, while only 31% supported continued efforts to reclaim occupied territories. With U.S. President-elect Trump advocating to end the war, it may be timely for Ukraine’s leadership to carefully consider what terms they might be willing to accept in a potential peace agreement, including what they would concede and what they aim to retain.
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